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Earthquake Magnitude Estimationthrough Mixed-Effects Ground-MotionModeling of EarlyP-Wave Arrivals.

A regional earthquake early warning system (EEWS) warrants potential predictive models to accurately extract earthquake parameters like magnitude and intensity from the first few seconds of a P‐wave arrival. In this study, a maiden predictive model depicting the relationship between peak displacement amplitude (Pd) and magnitude (ML) is proposed for the western Himalayan region. The displacement magnitude (Mpd) derived from displacement amplitude (Pd) values, accurately matches with catalog magnitude (ML) even for the data not used to derive the model, lending credence to the developed model. A scaling relation between the peak ground velocities (PGV) and values is also established to evaluate the seismic hazard levels during early P wave arrivals.

The relation between the Pd and magnitude (ML) (in gray circles) (left). The correlation between the comparison of displacement magnitudes (Mpd) and the magnitude in the catalog (ML) (right).

Relation between observed Pd values and the observed peak ground velocity (PGV). The black solid line represents the median fit between observed PGV and Pd values, with ±1 standard deviation (sdv) represented by the black dashed lines.

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